Younger, more efficient fleet
The outlook for aviation demand in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) continues to grow. The region is forecast to take delivery of a total of 1,140 new airplanes over the next 20 years, valued at $130 billion. CIS airplane orders were strong in 2011, both for models from western manufacturers and for new Russian models, such as the Sukhoi Superjet 100 that entered service in 2011 and the developmental Irkut MS-21. The current CIS order backlog accounts for 41 percent of forecast deliveries.
The economies of the CIS region grew moderately in 2011. GDP expanded at a rate of 4.3 percent in 2011, in line with GDP growth of 4.5 percent in 2010. Overall, regional growth is expected to continue, with GDP growing 3.4 percent annually over the next 20 years. Russia's economy continues to be the region's largest, accounting for more than 70 percent of the region's GDP in 2011. The economies of Ukraine and Kazakhstan follow Russia in size.
The Russian Transport Ministry's Federal Air Transport Agency reported that Russian airports serviced 112.4 million passengers in 2011, an increase of 12.9 percent compared to 2010. Over the next 20 years, Boeing forecasts that air traffic to and from the CIS region will grow at a rate of 4.7 percent annually.
Strong demand for twin-aisle airplanes
Long-haul international traffic is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.8 percent through 2031. The Russian Transport Ministry's Federal Air Transport Agency reported nearly 47 million passengers on international routes in 2011, a 14.9 percent increase compared to 2010. Driven by increasing international traffic, twin-aisle service will remain an important component of the region's market, creating demand for 250 new fuel-efficient twin-aisle airplanes and 30 large twin-aisle aircraft. The region's geographical size and diverse terrain make airline travel an attractive transportation option. Air travel will increase over the coming 20 years as personal incomes rise and liberalization of air transport regulations makes aviation services more available and affordable.