Younger, more efficient fleet
The outlook for aviation demand in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) continues to grow. The region is forecast to take delivery of a total of 1,170 new airplanes over the next 20 years, valued at $140 billion. In the mid-1990s, Western-built airplanes represented less than 2 percent of the CIS fleet, with only a few dozen Boeing and Airbus airplanes in operation. Today, around 70 percent of the fleet consists of more efficient Western-built airplanes, which can fly more hours per day than the average airplane of the fleet operating in the 1990s. The switch to more efficient airplanes is allowing carriers to meet market demand with fewer airplanes.
Regional economies recovering
The economies of the CIS region grew moderately in 2011. GDP expanded at a rate of 3.8 percent in 2012, slowing from a 5.0 percent rate in 2011. Overall, regional growth is expected to continue, with GDP averaging 3.4 percent annual growth over the next 20 years. Russia's economy continues to be the region's largest, accounting for more than 70 percent of the region's GDP in 2012. The economies of Ukraine and Kazakhstan follow Russia in size.
The Russian Transport Ministry's Federal Air Transport Agency reported that the number of passengers carried by Russian airlines rose to 74.0 million in 2012, an increase of 15.5 percent compared to 2011. Over the next 20 years, Boeing forecasts that air traffic to and from the CIS region will grow at a rate of 4.4 percent annually.
Strong demand for single-aisle airplanes
The potential for domestic growth will create demand for an estimated 860 new single-aisle airplanes over the next 20 years. The region's geographical size and diverse terrain make airline travel an attractive transportation option. Air travel should increase over the coming 20 years as personal incomes rise and liberalization of air transport regulations makes aviation services more available and affordable.