Single-aisle airplanes remain pivotal
Over the next 20 years, we project that 24,670 single-aisle airplanes will be delivered, representing 70 percent of commercial airplane deliveries and 47 percent of total delivery value. Typically used for shorter distance travel, single-aisle airplanes are a flexible asset that airlines use both within regions and to connect adjacent regions. Demand for single-aisle airplanes will continue to be high in emerging economies where passenger traffic is growing and markets are liberalizing. Asia Pacific will receive 36 percent of the new single-aisle airplanes, while Europe and North America take 23 percent and 20 percent, respectively. In the mature markets, roughly half of new single-aisle airplanes will replace aging airplanes. As new 737 MAX and A320neo airplanes enter service, fleet fuel efficiency will improve and the more capable airplanes will be able to serve new, longer markets. Passengers will especially appreciate the new interior already available on the 737 for these longer flights.
International traffic creates small and medium widebody demand
The small and medium widebody airplane category is the highest valued market segment of the forecast. Accounting for 22 percent of forecast deliveries, the category represents 45 percent of the total world airplane delivery value at US$2.2 trillion over the next 20 years. This product category is also the most dynamic, with deliveries of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner increasing, introduction of the Airbus A350 pending, and development of even more fuel-efficient mid-sized airplanes anticipated. These products allow airlines to create new, economical, point-to-point international services and give airlines flexibility to complement existing Boeing 787 and 777 and Airbus A330 service. Over the next 20 years, the vast majority of these airplanes currently flying will be retired. By 2032, about 87 percent of the small and medium widebody airplanes in operation will have been delivered since 2012.
Demand for large airplanes focused in key regions
Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East account for more than 90 percent of large-airplane demand in the 20-year forecast. These airplanes will serve as passenger jetliners on high-traffic trunk routes, as well as dedicated commercial freighters. The forecast 760 deliveries comprise 6 percent of total delivery value. The Asia Pacific region will receive 34 percent of these deliveries, while Europe will take 22 percent and the Middle East will take 37 percent. Although their share of long-haul traffic will diminish over the next 20 years, large airplanes remain an important part of the commercial airline fleet.