Long-Term Market
Single-aisle aircraft remain pivotal
Over the next 20 years, we project that 23,240 single-aisle airplanes will be delivered, representing nearly 70 percent of commercial airplane deliveries and 45 percent of total delivery value. Most commonly used for shorter distance travel, single-aisle airplanes will find new applications in emerging markets as passenger demand continues to grow. Airlines will continue to rely on single-aisle airplanes to connect adjacent regions, such as North America to South America and Oceania to Southeast Asia. Asia Pacific will receive 34 percent of the new single-aisle aircraft, while Europe and North America will take 25 percent and 22 percent, respectively. In the mature markets, new single-aisle airplanes will replace aging airplanes, such as MD-80s, 737 Classics, and older A320s. As more new 737 MAX and A320neo airplanes enter service, overall fleet efficiency will improve and the more capable airplanes will be able to serve new markets.
International traffic creates twin-aisle demand
The twin-aisle airplane segment is the highest valued segment of the long-term forecast, valued at US$2.1 trillion over the next 20 years. Entry into service of airplanes such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, and later, the Airbus A350 is allowing airlines to create new point-to-point international service. These new airplane families will help foster traffic growth between regions by allowing airlines to supplement current service provided by the Boeing 777 and the Airbus A330. Twin-aisle airplanes account for 24 percent of forecast deliveries, which is 47 percent of the projected delivery value. Over the next 20 years, the vast majority of twin-aisle airplanes currently flying will be retired. By 2031, new airplanes will account for 87 percent of the twin-aisle fleet.
Demand for large airplanes focused in key regions
Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East account for more than 90 percent of large-airplane demand in the 20-year forecast. These airplanes will serve as passenger jetliners on high-traffic trunk routes, as well as dedicated commercial freighters. The forecast 790 deliveries are valued at US$280 billion, or 6 percent of the total delivery value. The Asia Pacific region will receive 41 percent of these deliveries, while Europe will take 25 percent and the Middle East will take 24 percent. While medium-size twin-aisle airplanes will take a growing share of long-haul traffic over the next 20 years, large airplanes will remain an important part of the commercial airline fleet.
