Single-aisle market share on the rise
Today there are more than 900 airlines in operation, with more than 20,000 jet airplanes in service. The fleet composition has changed over the past 20 years, and we expect that it will continue to evolve over time. The widebody fleet mix has seen one of the largest changes. In 1992, the majority of widebody airplanes were of the small and large size categories. We expect the medium widebody category to gain an increasing share through 2032. The regional jet segment of the market continues to shrink as airlines focus on costs. This market segment will remain flat, thus losing share as airlines favor other size categories of airplanes. As emerging markets and the diversity of business models continue to expand, we expect that single-aisle airplanes will remain popular with airlines and passengers and thus gain share going forward.
Growing fuel efficiency
Fuel costs have nearly doubled over the past 10 years. Fuel represents up to 30 percent of total operating cost for single-aisle airplanes and up to 50 percent for widebody airplanes. Airlines are looking at all opportunities to reduce costs. One way to do this is to replace older, less efficient airplanes with new-technology airplanes, such as the 737 MAX and 787. Other ways include increasing airplane utilization. Utilization for the single-aisle fleet is currently 2 percent higher than it was in 2011, and the widebody fleet is 0.4 percent higher than in 2011. The steadily rising load factor is another way airlines are increasing efficiency. Average load factor reached a record high of 79 percent in 2012.
Increasing geographical diversity
At year-end 2012, the United States had the world's largest commercial fleet, comprising 6,080 airplanes. China, Russia, and the United Kingdom followed with the second, third, and fourth largest commercial fleets. Commercial airplane backlogs indicate growing geographical diversity in the order base. The United States and China retain the top two positions in terms of number of airplane orders, as new entrants including Indonesia, India, Malaysia, and Russia gain a significant presence.