The Company estimates the fair values of the related operations
using discounted cash flows. The forecasts of future cash
flows are based on the Company’s best estimate of future revenues
and operating costs, based primarily on existing firm orders,
expected future orders, contracts with suppliers, labor agreements,
and general market conditions, and are subject to review and
approval by senior management and the Board of Directors.
Changes in these forecasts could cause a particular operating
group to either pass or fail the first step in the SFAS No.
142 goodwill impairment model, which could significantly change
the amount of impairment recorded.
The cash flow forecasts are adjusted by an appropriate discount
rate derived from the Company’s market capitalization plus
a suitable control premium at the date of evaluation. Therefore,
changes in the stock price will also affect the amount of
impairment recorded. At the date of the previous impairment,
a 10% increase in the value of Boeing common stock would have
reduced the impairment charge recorded in the first quarter
of 2002 by approximately $190 million. A 10% decrease in the
value of Boeing common stock would have increased the impairment
charge by approximately $160 million.
Postretirement plans
The Company sponsors various pension plans covering substantially
all employees. The Company also provides postretirement benefit
plans other than pensions, consisting principally of health
care coverage, to eligible retirees and qualifying dependents.
The liabilities and annual income or expense of the Company’s
pension and other postretirement plans are determined using
methodologies that involve several actuarial assumptions,
the most significant of which are the discount rate, the long-term
rate of asset return, and medical trend (rate of growth for
medical costs). Not all net periodic pension income or expense
is recognized in net earnings in the year incurred because
it is allocated to production as product costs, and a portion
remains in inventory at the end of a reporting period.
The Company uses a discount rate that is based on a point-in-time
estimate as of the September 30 measurement date. This rate
is determined based on a review of long-term, high quality
corporate bonds as of the measurement date and use of models
that match projected benefit payments of the Company’s major
United States pension and other postretirement plans to coupons
and maturities from high quality bonds. A 25 basis point increase
in the discount rate would decrease the 2002 pension and other
postretirement liabilities by approximately $1,000 million
(3%) and $230 million (3%), respectively, and decrease the
2002 net periodic pension and other postretirement expense
by approximately $16 million and $11 million, respectively.
A 25 basis point decrease in the discount rate would increase
the 2002 pension and other postretirement liabilities by approximately
$1,250 million (3.5%) and $250 million (3.5%), respectively,
and increase the 2002 net periodic pension and other postretirement
expense by approximately $18 million and $13 million, respectively.
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Net periodic pension costs include an underlying expected
long-term rate of asset return. In developing this assumption,
the Company looks at a number of factors: a review of asset
class return by several of the Company’s trust fund investment
advisors, long-term inflation assumptions, and long-term historical
returns for the Company’s plans. The expected long-term rate
of asset return is based on a diversified portfolio including
domestic and international equities, fixed income, real estate,
private equities and uncorrelated assets. Pension income or
expense is especially sensitive to changes in the long-term
rate of asset return. An increase or decrease of 25 basis
points in the expected long-term rate of asset return would
have increased or decreased 2002 pension income by approximately
$95 million.
The 2002 postretirement benefit obligation for non-pension
plans reflects a significant increase in medical trend. Recent
losses due to higher-than-expected increases in medical claims
costs have created an unrecognized loss in 2002. The Company
increased its short-term medical trend for 2003 to reflect
the revised expectations of continued cost increases in the
next few years.
Standards Issued and Not Yet Implemented
In June 2001, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB)
issued SFAS No. 143, Accounting
for Asset Retirement Obligations, which is effective
January 1, 2003. This standard addresses financial accounting
and reporting for obligations associated with the retirement
of tangible long-lived assets and the associated retirement
costs. The Company has determined that the implementation
of this standard will not have a material effect on its financial
statements.
In July 2002, the FASB issued SFAS No. 146, Accounting
for Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities.
This standard requires costs associated with exit or disposal
activities to be recognized when they are incurred. The requirements
of SFAS No. 146 apply prospectively to activities that are
initiated after December 31, 2002, and as such, the Company
cannot reasonably estimate the impact of adopting these new
rules until and unless it undertakes relevant activities in
future periods.
In November 2002, the FASB issued Interpretation No. 45 (FIN
45), Guarantor’s Accounting
and Disclosure Requirements for Guarantees, Including Indirect
Guarantees of the Indebtedness of Others, which clarifies
the requirements of SFAS No. 5, Accounting
for Contingencies, relating to a guarantor’s accounting
for and disclosures of certain guarantees issued. FIN 45 requires
enhanced disclosures for certain guarantees. It also will
require certain guarantees that are issued or modified after
December 31, 2002, including certain third-party guarantees,
to be initially recorded on the balance sheet at fair value.
For guarantees issued on or before December 31, 2002, liabilities
are recorded when and if payments become probable and estimable.
The Company expects FIN 45 to have the general effect of delaying
recognition for a portion of the revenue for product sales
that are accompanied by certain third-party guarantees. The
financial statement recognition provisions are effective prospectively,
and the Company cannot reasonably estimate the impact of adopting
FIN 45 until guarantees are issued or modified in future periods,
at which time their results will be initially reported in
the financial statements. See Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements
discussion.
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