This forecast is limited to the commercial aviation sector, which includes commercial passenger and commercial freight, and assumes that air traffic demand will recover to 2019 levels by 2024. Consistent with last year’s forecast, this year’s outlook does not include business aviation and civil helicopter demand.
New personnel demand is calculated based on a 20-year fleet forecast for commercial aviation aircraft with more than 30 seats. By analyzing fleet growth and replacement, aircraft utilization, attrition rates, and regional differences in crewing specific to aircraft type, Boeing's Pilot and Technician Outlook estimates the number of new pilots, maintenance technicians, and cabin crew members needed worldwide to meet global traffic demand.
Variations to the forecast can occur on a year-over-year basis as a result of many factors, some of which include changes in regulations, crew productivity, and aircraft mix. The forecast does not include assumptions for single-pilot commercial airplane operations. However, it does consider impacts from alternative modes of transportation, such as advanced air mobility and high-speed rail. Boeing continues to track the market for indications of regulatory movement and will update our forecast accordingly.