Summary
2006 | 2007 World Air Cargo Forecast
In spite of high jet fuel prices, world air cargo continued to grow in 2005 and 2006. Over the next 20 years, world air cargo traffic will triple over current levels, and the freighter fleet will double.
In 2005, world air cargo traffic grew 2.0 percent, following 12.0 percent growth in 2004. A major contributor to the slowdown in 2005 was the high cost of jet fuel. The spot jet fuel price increased 42 percent in 2005, ending at an average of $1.69 per gallon. During the first six months of 2006, the spot jet fuel price averaged $1.96 per gallon. This fuel price increase diverted some traffic that otherwise would have moved by air cargo channels to less expensive maritime trade lanes. Despite these high fuel prices and other adverse factors, world air cargo traffic has grown 3.1 percent for the first six months of 2006, compared to the same period in 2005.
Economic activity, as measured by world GDP, remains the primary driver for air cargo industry growth. World GDP grew 3.5 percent in 2005, following 4.0 percent growth in 2004. In the near term, the world economic outlook remains upbeat despite turmoil in the financial markets, rising oil prices, and increasing tensions in the Middle East. The global economy continues to maintain healthy growth in the second quarter, after rebounding in the first quarter of 2006. For the second half of the year, the world economy should grow at an above-trend pace as long as investor and consumer confidence remains strong. Other significant risks include high oil prices, the spread of avian influenza, and rising interest rate.
World air cargo traffic will expand at an averagee annual rate of 6.1 percent for the next two decades, tripling current traffic levels. Asia's air cargo markets will continue to lead the world air cargo industry in average annual growth rates, with domestic China and intra-Asia markets expanding 10.8 percent and 8.6 percent per year, respectively. As in the past, the more mature North America and Europe markets reflect slower and thus lower-than-average traffic growth rates, with the exception of those linked to Asia and Southwest Asia.
The world freighter fleet has remained fairly stable for the past five years, masking strong numbers of deliveries. A closer look at the freighter fleet shows that widebody freighter deliveries are accelerating as aging standard-body aircraft and first-generation widebodies are retired. This trend has helped increase the widebody freighter fleet from fewer than 250 in 1994 to nearly 900 today. Over the next 20 years, the freighter fleet size is forecast to nearly double, from 1,789 in 2005 to 3,563 in 2025. Medium-widebody and large freighter aircraft will lead fleet additions, growing from an overall share of 50 percent to 64 percent as traffic continues to build on long-haul, international trade lanes.