Summary
Demand for air cargo transport rebounded sharply in 2010 after a calamitous 18-month decline that began in May 2008. In spite of this downturn, world air cargo traffic will triple over the next 20 years, compared to 2009 levels, averaging 5.9% annual growth. The number of airplanes in the freighter fleet will increase by more than two-thirds over the same period.
In 2009, world air cargo traffic declined 11.3%, after declining 1.8% in 2008 and growing 3.3% in 2007. The 2008-2009 period marked the first time that air cargo traffic has contracted in two consecutive years. The decline affected nearly all geographic markets, but markets connected to industrial freight flows generally fared worse than markets less dependent on these flows. The rising price of fuel diverted air cargo to less expensive road transport and maritime modes beginning in 2005. Although the tepid rate of world air cargo traffic growth between 2005 and 2008 can be attributed in part to rising fuel prices, the nearly 13% drop in cargo traffic during the two years ending in 2009 reflects the steep plunge in industrial activity attendant to the global economic downturn.
The global economic downturn that began in the latter half of 2008 was the worst contraction since the Great Depression. World industrial production fell 9% in 2009, which produced the worst decline in freight transport in 80 years. Economic and industrial disruptions led to a drop in traffic for all freight transport modes-container-handling statistics for world ports also fell approximately 9% in 2009. For the first time ever, containership lines cut services, reduced frequencies at ports of call, and idled ships on a global scale.
In August 2009, industrial activity began to recover, particularly in Asia. The pace of air cargo traffic contraction, which had approached 30% in the first half of 2009, began to ease. Monthly air cargo traffic statistics turned positive in November 2009, and the first eight months of 2010 saw an estimated 24% growth in traffic, compared to the same period in 2009. The strong rebound is expected to propel world air cargo traffic to regain the peak it attained in 2007 by the end of 2010. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many industrial shippers have turned to air cargo in response to the overcorrection that constrained capacity in the other modes of transport, particularly in containerships.
Economic activity, as measured by world GDP, remains the primary driver of air cargo traffic growth. World GDP fell 2.1% in 2009, following 1.9% growth in 2008. In the near term, GDP growth remains hesitant, reflecting high unemployment in developed economies and restrained consumer purchasing. In the longer term, world economic growth is forecast to average 3.2% over the next 20 years.
World air cargo traffic will expand at an average annual rate of 5.9% for the next two decades, tripling the 2009 levels. Asia's air cargo markets will continue to lead the industry in average annual growth. The intra-Asia market alone is expanding 7.9% per year. Markets connecting developing economies to established economies will equal or exceed the average world growth rate.
Over the next 20 years, the number of airplanes in the freighter fleet is forecast to expand by more than two-thirds, from 1,755 airplanes in 2009 to 2,967 airplanes in 2029. Large freighter aircraft will lead fleet additions, growing from an overall share of 27% to 33% as traffic continues to build on long-haul, international trade lanes.