World Freighter Fleet
Over the next 20 years, the freighter fleet will grow by more than two-thirds, expanding from 1,755 airplanes in 2009 to 2,967 airplanes in 2029.
Due to a tripling in traffic levels and the preference among airlines and shippers for dedicated freighter service, the freighter fleet will increase by more than two-thirds, from 1,755 to 2,967 airplanes. Although 1,282 airplanes will be retired, 2,494 airplanes will be added to the freighter fleet by 2029. A shift toward widebody freighters will result in a fleetwide increase in average freighter airplane payload, which accounts for the disparity between growth in demand for cargo services and fleet growth. Well over half of all additions to the fleet will be in the widebody (medium and large freighter) categories.
Seventy percent of freighter fleet additions will come from modified passenger and combination airplanes, with 743 new production freighters entering the fleet during the forecast period. New production freighters predominate in the large freighter category, with many airlines preferring the technical advantages, reliability, fuel efficiency, and overall low unit costs of new airplanes. As a result, the large freighter category's share of the total fleet will expand from 27% to 33%. Although new airplanes will make up a minority of the total world freighter fleet, the value of all new freighters delivered will total $180 billion in current US dollars.
In many cases, operators such as express carriers prefer medium widebodies as replacements for retiring standard-body freighters. Despite this preference, more than 1,084 standard-body airplanes will be delivered, nearly all conversions. As with production models, breadth of product family is important in the conversion market. Providers will therefore continue to expand their offerings. The freighter share of the total airplane fleet will decrease slightly from 9% to 8% during the forecast period.