World Freighter Fleet
Over the next 20 years, the freighter fleet will nearly double, expanding from 1,948 airplanes in 2007 to 3,892 airplanes in 2027.
Taking the forecast 1,414 retirements into account, 3,358 airplanes will be added to the freighter fleet by 2027. The disparity between tripling traffic growth and doubling fleet growth owes to the shift toward widebody freighters, which will result in a fleetwide increase in average freighter airplane payload. More than 60 percent of all additions to the fleet will be in the widebody category, that is, medium widebody plus large freighters. This aggregate category will increase in share to 65 percent of the fleet in 2027.
Nearly three-quarters of freighter fleet additions will come from modified passenger and combi airplanes, with 863 new production freighters entering the fleet during the forecast period. New production freighters predominate in the large freighter category, as many airlines prefer their technical advantages, reliability, and fuel efficiency. Although new airplanes will make up a minority of the total world freighter fleet, the value of all new freighters delivered totals $206 billion in current U.S. dollars.
In many cases, operators such as express carriers prefer medium widebodies as replacements for retiring standard-body freighters. Thus, the share of standard-body freighters will slightly decrease from 39 percent to 35 percent over the next two decades. Nevertheless, more than 1,334 standard-body units will be delivered, representing an 84 percent increase in their number. As with production models, breadth of product family is important in the conversion market, so both airplane manufacturers continue to expand their offerings. Freighters will maintain about a 10 percent share of the total airplane fleet during the forecast period.