Staying current
The Boeing Current Market Outlook describes our long-term forecast for air transport. We use the word "current" in this title as each year, we literally tear up our old forecast and start again with new analysis to ensure that our forecast takes current market conditions into account. This year, for example, we start from the basis of economic downturn, volatile fuel prices and financial concerns and look ahead at how airline strategies are being adjusted to account for these issues.
We are also staying current in another sense, by presenting an entirely Web-based Outlook with interactive tools to let you make use of comprehensive forecast data. A full dataset is available in Excel format, and a copy of the entire site, including all the tables we traditionally publish, is available in PDF format using the links in the right-hand panel of each page.
Travel values
The incredible resilience of air transport is reflected in forecasts we have published over the past 45 years. Over the past 20 years, the industry experienced several economic downturns, yet grew by an average of around 5 percent per year. We expect that the continued dependence of people and businesses around the world on timely, reliable and efficient air transport will result in a similar growth trend over the next 20 years.
Demand diversity
Air transport throughout the world is constantly changing in response to market opportunities and challenges. The rise of new airline business models and rapid growth of air travel in the world's emerging economies are stabilizing worldwide demand for airplanes. Even during times of general slowing, some markets gain through regional economic growth and reduced market regulation.
New airplanes
The significant advantage in efficiency and capability that new airplanes offer is keeping airplane demand strong. Starting from record highs, manufacturer backlogs are holding up well, despite recent market conditions. Fuel-efficient airplanes are a natural hedge against jet fuel price volatility, and their lower emissions help airlines meet their environmental performance goals.
Future freight
As the future freighter fleet shifts toward larger freighters and new, more efficient airplanes, air cargo transport will be kept affordable. Air cargo traffic will grow an average of 5.4 percent per year, driven by rising world GDP and the reliance of global industry on fast delivery and international production and delivery systems.
