Fleet size will double
Boeing forecasts that the fleet will grow from about 19,400 planes in 2010 to more than 39,500 by 2030. The need to replace older, less efficient airplanes will account for 40 percent of the projected market for new airplanes. The 2011 forecast anticipates 13,360 airplanes will be replaced over the next 20 years. This reflects rising fuel prices and the increasing economic burden of using older, less capable, and less efficient airplanes. At this replacement rate, 85 percent of the fleet operating in 2030 will have been delivered after 2011.
Surging demand for single-aisle aircraft
Today, there are 12,100 single-aisle airplanes in operation around the world, representing 62 percent of the total jet fleet. The single-aisle fleet is forecast to more than double, reaching 27,750 airplanes or 70 percent of the total fleet by 2030, largely reflecting the rapid expansion of air services in Asia, the rise of intraregional air travel in emerging economies, and the growth and geographic expansion of the low-cost-carrier model.
The fastest growing market will be for twin-aisle airplanes. This segment is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.4 percent. The twin-aisle fleet will grow from 3,640 airplanes in operation today to 8,570 airplanes in 2030. In 20 years, much of the in-service fleet will be newer aircraft, such as the Boeing 787 and 777, which offer more passenger comfort, improved efficiency, and better environmental performance than the airplanes they replace.
There is expected to be modest growth in the large aircraft fleet over the long term. The number of large airplanes in the fleet will grow from about 770 today to 1,140 in 2030. Nearly all the gain in large aircraft is coming from the freighter market. The number of large passenger airplanes in operation today is around 450. The large airplane passenger fleet will remain at approximately that level over the long term.
Modest upgauging
The average seat count of airplanes in the fleet will verge upward incrementally as fuel and operating cost pressures encourage airlines to go to larger seat counts within all airplane size categories. In particular, due to better economics, small regional jets will be replaced with larger regional jets and small single-aisle airplanes on short-haul routes. Introduction of the 787 and, eventually, the A350 will spur airlines to trade up as airplanes in the 767 and A330 size category begin to reach retirement age. Within the large airplane segment, airlines will look to upgauge from the 747-400 to the 747-8 or A380.
