Freight values
Difficult market conditions that began in May 2008 led to a contraction in cargo traffic of about 6 percent for the year, in comparison to 2007 levels. Further declines were recorded in early 2009. Combined with slowing world industrial production and international trade, this has had a slight impact on our long-term view of the freight market, leading to a 5.4 percent cargo traffic growth rate, measured in revenue tonne-kilometers (RTK), in this year's forecast.
Larger freighters
A shift toward larger freighters and new, more efficient airplanes will help keep air cargo transport affordable. Sustained growth of world trade reflected in global GDP along with continued sound industry fundamentals (imperative for speed, consumer product innovation and global industrial interdependence) will drive a 5.4 percent average annual growth in air cargo traffic. New air trade routes will expand service coverage.
Rapid and reliable freight
The global economy demands rapid and reliable business-to-business exchange. Air cargo transport makes it possible. Manufacturers depend on air freight services for efficient just-in-time inventory management. Freighter aircraft enable the most economical sourcing of components and assemblies while minimizing expensive inventory holding costs. In many areas of the world, ground infrastructure is lacking. Here, air transport sustains vital export markets and allows transportation of even basic commodities.
The tonne-kilometer cost and range advantages of large freighters will enable air carriers to meet demand on high-growth trade lanes, particularly links to Asia. As world air cargo nearly triples over the next 20 years, the number of freighters in the world fleet will grow by more than two-thirds. Replacement airplanes will generally be larger, increasing the fleet share of large freighters from 26 percent to 33 percent by 2028.
Sustaining economies
Air transport sustains many developing world economies by making it possible to ship perishable products such as fresh flowers, fruit and live animals to distant markets. Reliable, regularly scheduled freighter flights make pharmaceuticals, life-saving blood and tissue products as well as emergency equipment available and affordable. Prompt delivery actually adds to the value and competitiveness of a variety of products, including fashion items and leading-edge consumer electronics.
