Moving center of gravity of world airplane demand
Air travel essential to economic development
The essential role of air transport in economic development means that the most rapidly developing economies of the world will increase their share of the need for new airplanes.
Over the next 20 years, the center of gravity of the world airline fleet will move substantially toward the Asia-Pacific region. More than one third of the value of new airplanes delivered will be accounted for by Asia-Pacific, compared with about a quarter for North America and a quarter for Europe and the CIS.
China leading long-term domestic market growth
China leads long-term growth in domestic air travel markets. Its capacity growth rate of 8.1 percent will combine with increased load factors to propel its airline traffic from just under a fifth the size of the North American domestic market today to over half the size of the North American market in 20 years' time.
Continued effects from recent expansion of the European Union and growth of low-cost airlines will drive European and CIS domestic airline traffic to overtake the North American domestic market in the near term. It will then fall back to its former slightly lower share by the end of the forecast period.
North America domestic: long-term recovery
The North American market will experience the reverse of the European phenomenon, with constrained domestic growth in the near term and capacity transfers to stronger international routes. Domestic markets will then recover in the medium to long term.
