The widebody fleet continues to grow as airlines expand their international footprint and open new markets. We forecast that 8,600 new widebody airplanes will be needed to meet this demand. Of these, 4,520 will be in the 200- to 300-seat size category (787-8 and 787-9), 3,460 will be in the 300- to 400-seat size category (787-10, 777, and 777X); and the remaining 620 will be in the greater than 400-seat size category (747-8i). As with the single-aisle airplanes, 38 percent of deliveries will be for replacements and 62 percent of deliveries will be for growth. Europe and North America tend to be a replacement market, while Asia Pacific and the Middle East are a growth market. Nearly 60 percent of all new deliveries will go to Middle East and Asia Pacific airlines.
Since the 777 came to the market, the top 25 long-haul markets have expanded, and capacity has increased by 60 percent. This increase in capacity has been met by an increase in frequencies (up 60 percent) and by the addition of new cities being served (up 46 percent), while the number of seats per airplane has decreased slightly (down 2 percent). This market flexibility will continue as the 787 family and 777X come to market. The 787 is allowing airlines to provide customers the ability to fly where they want to, when they would like to fly, as in the cases of London Heathrow to Austin, Texas: San Francisco to Chengdu: and San Jose to Tokyo. Airlines are also announcing how they will be using the 787-9 in conjunction with the 787-8 to provide the right-size airplane on the right day.
The new twin-engine airplanes coming to market are also helping airlines to evolve airline business models. The 787-8 allows LCCs to move from the traditional short-haul flight into more medium-haul flying, expanding their customer base while using an airplane with lower operating costs. The range and efficiency of the 777-300ER allow airlines to take advantage of their geographical locations.
Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East account for more than 90 percent of large-airplane demand in the 20-year forecast. These planes will serve as passenger jetliners on high-traffic trunk routes and as dedicated commercial freighters. We forecast 620 deliveries, composing 5 percent of total delivery value, will be required. The Asia Pacific region will receive 34 percent of these deliveries, while Europe will take 10 percent and the Middle East
48 percent. Although the large-airplane share of long-haul traffic will diminish over the next 20 years, large airplanes remain an important part of the commercial airline fleet.