For more than 60 years, the Boeing Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) has been the aviation industry’s leading forecast in global commercial air traffic and airplane demand.
With detailed, regional analysis the CMO is an annual resource for airlines, suppliers and the wider aviation community in tracking the evolution of market trends over a 20-year period.
The 2023 CMO reflects global passenger traffic nearly recovered from the disruption of the pandemic. Despite constraints caused by labor shortages, supply chain issues and operational restrictions at airports, passenger traffic is set to return to 2019 levels over the course of the next 12-18 months.
2023 CMO forecast highlights include:
- Exiting the pandemic, many airlines are assessing their future networks and simplifying their fleet to improve operations and reduce costs. Almost 40% of airlines have removed at least one airplane family from their active fleet since 2019.
- Global passenger air travel has become increasingly diverse and balanced over the last several decades, a trend that is expected to continue over the forecast period, with emerging aviation markets in Asia experiencing higher-growth phases of network, infrastructure and airline development.
- The growth of low-cost carriers (LCC) continues to drive down fares and make travel more accessible, with 36% of the global single-aisle fleet now operated by LCCs. This is forecast to rise to more than 40% and nearly half of all single aisle seats by 2042.
- Overall the global fleet will double in size to more than 48,500 jets during the forecast period.
- Robust demand for dedicated cargo freighters will continue, despite the cyclicality of this sector, due to growing e-commerce and evolving supply chain networks.
Click on the interactive Tableau display below for more data and analysis about the evolution of the global fleet and traffic through 2042. Explore the interactive visuals showing industry evolution by market segment, recent trends and how those affect the forecast, as well as regional dynamics and growth profiles.