The Boeing Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) is our long-term forecast of commercial air traffic and airplane demand, including global and regional analysis. The CMO has been the industry standard for insights into the future of air travel since 1961 and annually provides valuable analysis to airlines, suppliers and the aviation community.
The 2022 CMO reflects that the global market is recovering as Boeing projected in 2020. Demand for domestic air travel has made a strong recovery across a number of regions, with international traffic gaining momentum as restrictions ease, tracking to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 to 2024.
2022 CMO forecast highlights include:
Boeing's analysis of market dynamics shows the resilience of the industry with many domestic markets nearly or fully recovered from pandemic impact, while international traffic gains momentum as restrictions ease.
The CMO forecasts a market value of $7.2 trillion for new airplane deliveries, with the global fleet increasing by 80% through 2041 compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. The commercial services market to meet this demand is valued at $3.6 trillion.
Approximately half of passenger jet deliveries will replace today’s models, improving the global fleet’s fuel efficiency and sustainability.
Continuing their strong growth story, Asian markets account for roughly 40% of long-term global demand for new airplanes. Europe and North America each account for just over 20% of demand, with 15% of deliveries going to other regions.
The CMO also predicts continued robust demand for dedicated freighters to support global supply chains and growing express networks. Carriers will need 2,800 additional freighters overall, including 940 new widebody models in addition to converted narrow-body and widebody freighters over the forecast period.
Click on the interactive Tableau display below for more data and analysis about the evolution of the global fleet through 2041, with interactive visuals showing industry evolution by market segment as well as regional dynamics and growth profiles.